Thinking it Through

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

​In his book Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell writes about his experience as an undergraduate in economics: "When I was an undergraduate studying economics under Professor Arthur Smithies of Harvard, he asked me in class one day what policy I favored on a particular issue of the times. Since I had strong feelings on that issue, I proceeded to answer him with enthusiasm, explaining what beneficial consequences I expected from the policy I advocated."

"And then what will happen,” he asked.
The question caught me off guard. However, as I thought about it, it became clear that the situation I described would lead to other economic consequences, which I then began to consider and to spell out.
"And then what will happen after that?" Professor Smithies asked."

This continued for several more rounds until:
"By now I was beginning to see that the economic reverberations of the policy I advocated were likely to be pretty disastrous and in fact, much worse than the initial situation that it was designed to improve."

The moral of the story is that unless we think things through, beyond stage one as Sowell calls it, we may end up doing things that have negative consequences. This holds true as much in our personal lives as in questions of public policy.

But, the sad truth is that many people don't think things through to their logical consequences. Why is this? I suspect a lot of it has to do with the fact that this kind of thinking is hard work and requires effort. Effort that people do not want to invest. But, it is also the case that most people have not been taught the basics of good clear thinking. Critical thinking we call it these days.

Consider a very simple example. It is a common misconception that the change in seasons can be explained by how far or how near the earth's orbit is to the sun. So, in the summer the earth is closer to the sun, and in the winter the earth is farther away (for those of you nodding in agreement read on as this is false).

Now, suppose you believe that this is true. Well, then certain things follow logically from it. First, it should be summer everywhere on earth at the same time. And, it should be winter everywhere on earth at the same time. But, this is demonstrably false. When it's winter here in the United States, it's summer in Australia. And, when it's summer here in the United States, it's winter in Australia (and other places in the southern hemisphere.

From this alone, it should be possible to infer that the original supposition about the seasons is wrong. This, I think, is the main reason people resist thinking things through. They fear that they may discover they hold false beliefs. What's wrong with holding false beliefs? Well, think it through using Professor Smithies's question as a guide!